Obviously I'm largely happy about how this game proceeded, with only one or two personally embarrassing moments I'm a bit sheepish about. It was an opportunity for me to revisit an earlier game, almost two decades ago, in which I as Germany crested early and was eviscerated; it was an experience that deeply informed my play in this game.
I imagine I'll have the most to say about this game save perhaps Matt, simply owing to my investment in it. Every Spring and Fall order given was the product of at least two hours of deliberation and commonly three or more, playing the round from various sides and attempting to see through to the ideal tactical solution to employ. Until the end game, the choices were mostly obvious and optimizable: it wasn't until the slog through Austria and Russia that there were key moments involving guesswork, and I was lucky enough there to be able to discern the proper maneuver in most of them.
I'd made a point throughout the game to plan honestly and openly, and in only a few critical spots kept my intentions hidden. I've found that deception is the kind of thing you get to use only a few times in a game, and they'd best count. Part of that is also engaging diplomatically with most powers at all times... though that strategy was largely abandoned after my betrayal of Russia when it became clear that it was me against the world. It was not entirely abandoned: I kept open a few lines of communication and in particular it was the correspondence with Russia that would end the stalemate.
I've divided my perception of the game into phases, and I'll conclude with some general remarks about the various countries (and iterations of their players in the case of France).
PHASE 1 - The North SeaFrom previous experience, I was certain that if I were going to play as Germany (my first choice of power) that control of the North Sea would be my only strategic concern. I knew that alliances would be necessary and that those alliances would have to serve to bring great pressure on England, but the precise how remained formless, by design: I wasn't sure who I could trust and who could be a good ally. All I really knew was that there was no way for England to tolerate a foreign power in control of the North Sea and that whoever could be marshaled to stymie their advance should be encouraged to do so.
As it turned out, France and England immediately could not come to terms over the English Channel. Their inability to resolve that issue was an opportunity that I didn't let go to waste, but I was in the beginning still very comfortable with not making too many commitments to France: Italy's early requests for aid against them were persuasive but I didn't want to tip France and England into working out their difficulties without having some kind of naval plan in place to secure the North Sea.
Russia was eager to move into Scandinavia and was amenable to coordinating naval efforts. That was good enough for me: I took Denmark, Holland, and Belgium all in the first turn owing to the English-French conflict, and both England and Russia were comfortable with my acquisition of Denmark.
Things solidified during this stage with its key moment: Austria's surprise attack on Munich. Honestly it would've eviscerated me completely if he'd followed through and my reaction was some very energetic, pleading press to France. That move totally drove me to ally closely with France, basically cut off any hope of betraying Russia early, and let Italy all alone.
Another critical moment during this phase didn't involve Germany directly at all; it was Italy's construction of an Army in Naples. That order alone, I believe, took Italy out of the game forevermore; it made a naval presence impossible to muster, bottled up all the Italian units on the peninsula, and basically meant that further acquisition of Supply Centers was going to have to come from betraying Austria as there was no way to make an effective ground advance on France. It meant that I didn't have to seriously engage with Italy as a power other than to encourage their betrayal of Austria, as there was almost literally nothing they'd be able to do to affect the course of the game other than that.
With Austria's ultimately failed betrayal - it was actually quite a masterstroke and had it been carried out with confidence and France's acceptance would've been Austria's flowering moment (note the next season's moves didn't threaten Austria, but he withdrew anyway!) - but as it was, it cemented France and Germany, whereupon I began to feed high-quality tactical advice to France. They took advantage of it and improved on it in a few surprising ways, and we both profited from it. Meanwhile, it meant that I no longer had to do anything with Russia other than feed them Supply Centers to brutalize Austria, as there was little point in them building in St Petersburg (and them not doing so was a key feature of our alliance: they aided my advance, they were paid with Centers, and their builds all poured into the Balkans and against Austria).
I was impressed with England's play throughout, save the one Void order attempting to round the corner of Scotland (Joe knows which one). Play was otherwise surprisingly tactically optimal for a new player and if England hadn't been cornered by France, Germany, and Russia he'd have been a formidable power. As it is, the failure to work things out with France and assuming conflict with Russia is Scandinavia meant that they were isolated and it was only a matter of time.
In the end, the capture of the North Sea was largely a matter of time, given the maneuvers at play. I'd tried to nudge France into the Mediterranean a bit, but not roughly, and it was actually France's surprise rush to England that ended England more than my own control of the North Sea. It was a very strong move and also pissed England off mightily, so far as I could tell. That would be a key point later: England, I think, considered our battle a face-to-face manly duel, and loss there was no loss of face but to have France opportunistically slip in at the end of crush him was a cruelty he wouldn't forgive.
PHASE 2 - The Mid-AtlanticFrance's attack on England was devastating and it pushed up the timetable on what sort of betrayal I'd have to undertake. I still hadn't solidified which of Russia and France I'd have to betray to advance, but France's maneuver was eye-opening enough that they went to the top of my threat register. Russia was still slogging it out with Austria and that was fine by me: their front kept extending but units were only going to the east, whereas France was pretty clearly interested in expanding in a more balanced and centered manner. France was the next target by virtue of their success close to German borders.
To that end, just as I'd focused on the North Sea, I formulated a plan to get to the Mid-Atlantic. I had some hopes that I could round the corner into the Mediterranean, but mostly figured that I wanted to acquire Marseilles, Spain, and Portugal and that would be enough, with other Centers sufficient for victory coming from Russia.
The opportunity to end France came with the realization that I might be able to execute a clever convoy order to get around France's front lines to place an army in Gascony. It was a plan fuelled almost entirely by a cocktail of audacity and the opportunity for revenge: I think Russia and England both were taken with the showy nature of it, and England especially seemed to relish the idea he'd be able to screw France back as hard as he'd gotten it. It worked like a charm, an attack so devastating that it collapsed France as a player: Diplomacy is a game where betrayals like this are a feature and not a bug, but they and the game aren't for everyone, and this particular betrayal (owing I imagine to its audacity and devastating implications) was definitely on the deep end of Diplomacy betrayals. Months of effort playing a game to see it evaporate due to an ally's well-timed treason is only fun the third+ time through Diplomacy where you can appreciate its terrible magnificence; before then and it just can feel awful.
I took Dave's quitting the game as a sign of the move's masterstroke qualities. I was annoyed that he would quit the game - this really is the keystone of the Diplomacy experience - but understood why he did so all the same.
My biggest beef with it was that while Dave had some surprises in him, his tactical game was weaker than mine and I was pretty confident I'd have been able to take Spain, Portugal, and Marseilles from him.
His replacement, Ed, was not so soft.
PHASE 3 - France was supposed to be easier than this/Russia betrayed!France was eliminated pretty quick following the convoy to Gascony, but the transition was not what I'd been hoping for. I'd been angling to blast through France and basically set up an unassailable front throughout (with Russia in the lead) but the fight that Ed's France put up slowed down the advance considerably. It meant that Russia still had to be fed Supply Center gains and that he was going to eventually build and keep an army in Warsaw, which was going to seriously screw up my betrayal of Russia.
France fell, it was always going to fall, but it was about as graceless a slog as it could've been and really screwed with the clockwork timing I'd been hoping for. I knew that Russia was going to eventually get large enough that I couldn't just roll them over and grab an easy win, and in fact everything was in doubt. I had to act quickly and luckily by then Russia hadn’t built in Warsaw in 1905. I ended up making a critical error by building a fleet in Kiel rather than an army, and that mistake was going to vex me years later.
In 1906 I executed the betrayal against Russia, moving to push the front as quickly as possible and scoring a 4 Centers. The fact that Russia didn’t collapse and instead managed to take Budapest and therefore could sustain keeping the fleet in Portugal was really disheartening. Austria was supposed to hold it – and could’ve held it – but I think the loss of Serbia took the fight out of them and they weren’t really thinking clearly about how to hold on for just another season.
PHASE 4 – Me against the world; desire for DIASThe post-1905 consensus that I was dangerously close to victory didn’t really gain steam until Austria fell in 1908, which stunk for me because France wasn’t locked up until the end of 1907. I had hoped for a faster-moving front but again, Ed’s defense of France created a slog where there hadn’t been one previously, and a victory I’d hoped would be easy was seriously in doubt... and then the Turkish convoy was an announcement that there was a concerted effort to deny my victory at all costs and that any animosity between powers had been put aside.
The fleet in Kiel I’d built in 1905 was now an albatross in the Baltic; I’d really needed an army to move south from St Petersburg to take Moscow and instead it took another full year to get to Moscow. As a personal note, the move I’m actually most proud of in this game was not the convoy to Gascony, though that ranks 2nd. It was the orders A Lvn-StP, A Pru-Lvn, F Bot S A Pru-Lvn. That move was a 50-50 call, and it meant that I could then take Moscow the next year. I knew that Supporting fleet was going to be needed to make the move and had to guess if Russia would order to StP or Lvn, and I guessed correctly.
It was at (or around) this point that I requested the DIAS (Draw Including All Survivors). There were a few seasons of a slow advance in Russia but even then from 1908 on, a series of interlocking Supports and Holds could’ve denied me the victory. It seemed everyone wanted to continue to push on except me: from my perspective, I could hold just as easily as the FITR coalition and it was only a matter of time of phonebooth sumo before everyone realized it, with weeks of play jockeying around meaninglessly until all parties realized it. As it was, and looking back, things were still open for a German victory. I could’ve taken Vienna in Fall 1909, for example, but assumed optimal play to Hold/Support it and so didn’t bother, instead trying to eliminate the Russian army in Ukraine.
So, I proposed the DIAS. And someone shot it down. And man, that pissed me off.
It was at that point that I decided if we were going to be doing this, we were going to be doing this. I’d made my peace with a close-enough play, 16 centers, and a draw with five players. It’s hard to stop a coalition of four powers and I’d done my best but was already thinking about how I should’ve managed the betrayal of Russia and other play elements so that next time I don’t get stuck locked into a situation with 16 centers. But the denied DIAS went right up my rear sideways, and I decided to unleash the knives.
I sent press warning Italy and Russia that Turkey denied the DIAS in order to get a more advantageous draw against Germany, which I actually thought was true but didn’t bother to try and talk my way out of until the denied DIAS.
PHASE 5 – Russia takes the bait; Victory!It was in the final phase that my incessant Wormtongue correspondence with Russia bore fruit, and it was the second denied DIAS that did it.
I denied it. In fact, my email to Matt read:
“LOL no. Fuck em. We play.
”
If my desire to end my suffering – and really, it was a shitload of work planning operations for all these units for a game, burning two+ hours a week, running scenarios, sending press, nervously waiting for the 9pm-ish Sunday night email to come in and fuck up my sleep – if my desire to stop all that had been denied, then I was going to drag everyone down with me. My press to Russia got much more pointed, I doubled down with statements that once again Turkey had denied the DIAS, that Rumania was going to fall, that Budapest was his, that he was going to take the fight to me and squeeze him out (and push France into the sea from Tunis). I was right, but not in the way I’d thought I was.
I’d really thought it was going down like that. I really did. I knew Turkey hadn’t denied the DIAS, but little did I know that Turkey had proposed the second DIAS. I thought it was Italy or France begging for relief from making the same basic orders all the time, or France especially trying to get it in before losing Tunis. I had no idea at the time that Turkey had proposed it (though maybe he didn’t?).
Anyway, it was 1910 Fall that everything came together. I knew I had a good chance of taking Sevastopol, since Russia had almost never taken advantage of the Support from the Black Sea; with that Support, it never would have been taken. I had no idea he’d move to Armenia! I hadn’t moved on Sevastopol previously because the Support was so obvious but the A Sev-XXX orders had been coming so consistently that I felt it was a great chance to take it, and I did.
In 1911, things could’ve been much closer... but they weren’t. The Spring orders were basically what I expected, but in the Fall I was shocked to see 1, no defense of Vienna, and 2, the attack on Sevastopol to come from Armenia rather than Rumania (F Rum-Sev, F Bla S, A Arm S, A Bud-Rum would’ve been unstoppable. As it is, I managed to talk Russia into continuing their kamikaze assault by attacking Trieste in order to prevent a defense of Vienna and Rumania was undefended (I had considered A Sev-Rum, A Ukr S).
I was reminded in my victory of the most important Diplomacy advice I’ve ever read (besides manage your long term plans against Stalemate lines): always, always always continue sending press. The game is not just moving units; it is managing relationships besides. If I hadn’t sent the Hail Mary press to Russia, the game would’ve been a five-way draw... instead, it was my first outright victory.
NOTES ON THE VARIOUS POWERSEnglandA great opponent. Once it was clear that I was on the attack, you should’ve pulled out all the stops to get France on your side because it was clear no one else could’ve saved you. Maybe you did and he just didn’t take the bait? It probably wouldn’t have mattered, given how opportunistic France was. Regardless, your tactical play was noteworthy and you lost solely from a lack of allies and not a lack of perception.
France (Dave R)Everyone was surprised and concerned about your advances, Italy especially. Whereas I had to slog against England and was ultimately fighting over the North Sea bordering multiple Supply Centers, I owned three of those from the end of 1901. If I didn’t take the fight to you, it was pretty clear to me that you were going to be able to take the fight to everyone else. Everyone seemed to be in a tight battle with Italy self-landlocked, you were able to waltz everywhere you wanted to be and it scared the shit out of everyone. When I attacked you I assume it was a relief to everyone other than Austria.
France (Ed S)Fuck you.
You did a great job jamming a spanner into my well-laid plans and took me from a solid chance of victory to an almost certain stalemate. I don’t know who put together the coalition against me in the Mediterranean but if it was you then double Fuck You. Two goddamn Supply Centers and they were in just the right spot to stop my 16-unit advance.
AustriaNext time, if you’re going to stab, stab once and stab for victory. Backstabs should be vicious and totally one-sided (see: Germany v Russia). Your attack resolved a lot of otherwise unresolved issues for me: when should I betray Russia (far in the future, considering I can’t trust Austria), how closely should I be with France (really close since Austria could attack me at any time and two open land fronts was never going to end well for me), should I help Italy (nope, there was no way to help them since I needed France to stay on my side)... that attack on Munich ended a lot of uncertainty for me.
ItalyThat army in Naples in 1901 was a devastating unforced error. It dramatically limited your battle against France (basically it made an advance impossible), made you unable to attack Turkey, and you decided you couldn’t afford to betray Austria... meaning you had nowhere to go. Eliminating your only fleet in 1903 was another unforced error and basically extinguished whatever chance you were going to have to move strongly against anyone. I really tried to give you good advice, but you never took it; I suppose your loyalty to Austria was unflappable, and that would’ve been commendable in pretty much any situation but a game of Diplomacy. That fleet really could’ve helped Austria against Turkey.
TurkeyYou shouldn’t have built a fleet after 1906, and only needed 3 fleets to stopper up the Mid-Atlantic (with France’s fleet in Portugal). You basically weren’t going to be able to win or mount an effective offense after building those two fleets – as it is, compare if you didn’t have the fleet in the Adriatic (it would be in the Black Sea), and had two spare armies operating in the Balkans from 1907. With those fleets I was surprised you didn’t take the battle to the Italians – they were easily replaceable in Austria and no land power can easily advance to Italy, what with Tyrolia so defensible. If you’re going to build units, use them. As it is, you left Russia’s defense up to Russia and you probably knew they weren’t up to the task.
RussiaThank you.
Seriously though, I had a tough time managing your advance. It was pretty important for me to keep feeding you Supply Centers at a fast enough pace that you were enamored of them and the smooth sailing they offered. I sort of regret mentioning that you should order A Rum-Ser as that fucked up my timetable (Austria was supposed to stymie you longer), but it was around that point that I started to get concerned that you would betray me, as both of us were advancing along what was a pretty precarious front for me. A betrayal by you would’ve sparked a long and nasty fight and that was not what I wanted to deal with, so I figured that was the price of continued assistance. The betrayal in 1906 was about as heavy a backstab as I could’ve mustered, and you took it like a champ and kept on slogging, and that’s seriously commendable.
FINAL THOUGHTSThanks all for the game. I know it was a first game for many of you – France (Dave R), England, and Russia – and it was my luck to be adjacent to all of you. I was at times torn by some of my shenanigans, such as getting England to take Brest out of spite and convincing Russia to abandon the front for a season in 1910, but really by then everyone ought to have seen the game for what it was and how it plays, and in the end... I regret nothing! (Except that fleet in Kiel)
Respectfully,
Generalleutnant Moriz Freiherr von LynckerChief of the Prussian Military Cabinet
"...politically innocent, intellectually mediocre, with subservient devotion to Wilhelm II."
